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The Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the week ending October 9, 2025, recorded a slight increase of 0.17%, mainly driven by higher prices of essential food items such as chicken, onions, wheat flour, and eggs, according to the latest data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).
The SPI, which measures short-term inflation by tracking the prices of 51 essential commodities across 50 markets in 17 major cities, showed mixed price trends during the week. Out of these items, prices of 21 (41.18%) increased, six (11.76%) decreased, while 24 (47.06%) remained stable.
According to the PBS report, the most significant weekly increase was seen in the price of chicken, which surged by 8.92%, followed by onions (7.47%), wheat flour (5.74%), and eggs (2.25%). Other notable increases were reported in the prices of gur (1.70%), garlic (0.86%), vegetable ghee 1kg (0.86%), vegetable ghee 2.5kg (0.59%), firewood (0.50%), and washing soap (0.23%).
Conversely, the prices of tomatoes dropped sharply by 11.34%, while bananas, potatoes, and LPG registered moderate declines of 1.29%, 0.93%, and 0.59%, respectively. Pulse gram and mustard oil also saw minor decreases of 0.35% and 0.07%.
The PBS noted that while the weekly change was moderate, the year-on-year (YoY) inflation trend reflected a 4.34% increase compared to the same period last year. Analysts believe that this uptick, though marginal, indicates persistent pressure on household budgets amid volatility in food prices and transportation costs.
On an annual basis, the report highlighted a substantial rise in the prices of several items. Tomatoes recorded an extraordinary surge of 109.82%, followed by ladies’ sandals (55.62%), sugar (36.08%), and gas charges for the first quarter (29.85%). The prices of wheat flour increased by 17.70%, while pulses such as moong and gur rose by 15.90% and 13.79%, respectively.
Additionally, beef prices climbed 12.66%, diesel 12.57%, and vegetable ghee (1kg and 2.5kg packs) rose by 11.86% and 11.57%, respectively. Firewood also saw an 11.65% annual increase, reflecting rising costs in both food and energy sectors.
However, a few commodities showed a year-on-year decline, providing limited relief to consumers. Onion prices fell by 43.16%, garlic by 28.16%, and electricity charges for the first quarter by 26.26%. Other notable decreases were reported in the prices of pulse gram (24.97%), chicken (24.30%), potatoes (18.51%), and pulse mash (18.17%). The prices of branded tea (Lipton) dropped by 17.93%, while pulse masoor and LPG registered declines of 3.88% and 2.16%, respectively.
Economists view the weekly SPI data as a crucial indicator for assessing inflationary pressure on low- and middle-income households. The rising prices of perishable food items such as onions and chicken continue to drive short-term inflation, while fluctuations in global commodity markets and local supply disruptions remain key factors influencing price trends.
Market observers note that food inflation has remained a sensitive issue in Pakistan, particularly due to its direct impact on public purchasing power and overall cost of living. The government has been under pressure to stabilize prices through market monitoring, timely imports of essential commodities, and measures to reduce the supply chain bottlenecks affecting perishable goods.
While the weekly increase of 0.17% may seem modest, experts warn that the persistence of such upward movements could push headline inflation higher in the coming months, especially if food supply challenges and seasonal fluctuations continue.
The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics will issue its next SPI update next week, which is expected to reflect the impact of changing fuel prices and the ongoing volatility in food markets as the country transitions into the winter season.
