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ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is facing the risk of a major wheat shortage after adverse weather conditions damaged crops across key agricultural regions, prompting the Punjab government to consider importing wheat to stabilize domestic supplies and control flour prices.
Officials estimate that wheat production could decline by 12% to 15% this year due to unfavorable seasonal conditions, including irregular rainfall patterns and rising temperatures during critical crop stages. The expected decline may create an overall shortfall of nearly 4.5 million tons nationwide, according to government sources familiar with ongoing assessments.
Sources said consultations are underway at the federal and provincial levels regarding the possibility of importing wheat to bridge the supply gap. The Punjab government’s position is also being reviewed before a final decision is taken in coordination with the federal government.
Punjab remains Pakistan’s largest wheat-producing province and contributes nearly 75% of the country’s annual wheat output. Any significant reduction in Punjab’s harvest directly affects national food security and flour prices. Officials in the Food Department said the country currently does not have sufficient wheat stocks to meet projected consumption requirements for the coming months.
According to the department, the combined wheat reserves held by the Pakistan Agricultural Storage and Services Corporation (PASSCO), along with the governments of Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, currently stand at around 2.2 million tons. Analysts believe these reserves may not be enough to offset the anticipated production losses if market demand rises sharply.
Pakistan typically consumes between 30 million and 32 million tons of wheat annually. The crop is a staple food for most households and remains highly sensitive politically due to its direct impact on inflation and food affordability. Flour prices have already remained under pressure in recent months amid broader inflationary trends and rising transportation and energy costs.
Agriculture experts say climate-related disruptions are increasingly affecting Pakistan’s crop yields. Heatwaves during the grain formation stage can significantly reduce wheat productivity, while untimely rains may damage standing crops and affect grain quality. According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department, temperatures in several wheat-growing districts remained above seasonal averages during key cultivation periods this year.
The government has previously relied on imports to stabilize the domestic wheat market during periods of low production. Pakistan imported millions of tons of wheat between 2020 and 2023 after lower harvests and supply disruptions pushed prices sharply higher. However, global wheat prices and freight costs remain volatile due to geopolitical tensions and changing international demand patterns.
Economic analysts warn that delays in policy decisions could intensify pressure on local markets. They say uncertainty over procurement, stock availability, and import timing often encourages speculative trading and hoarding, leading to higher retail flour prices for consumers.
The possible import decision also comes as Pakistan continues negotiations with international financial institutions over economic reforms and fiscal discipline. Any large-scale wheat imports could increase pressure on foreign exchange reserves, although officials argue that ensuring food security remains a priority.
Market observers expect the federal government to finalize its wheat strategy after reviewing updated crop estimates and provincial stock positions in the coming weeks. The outcome of these consultations will likely shape food inflation trends and supply conditions across Pakistan for the rest of the year.
