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Pakistan’s weekly inflation rose 0.56% for the week ending October 2, 2025, driven by sharp increases in key food and fuel items, led by tomatoes.
Aftab Maken
Pakistan’s Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI), a key measure of short-term inflation, registered a 0.56% increase for the week ending October 2, 2025, reflecting notable price hikes in essential commodities including tomatoes, petrol, and diesel. The weekly SPI data, compiled by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), monitors the cost movement of 51 essential items across 17 cities to capture inflation trends faced by the average consumer.
The sharpest weekly increase was observed in tomato prices, which skyrocketed by 46.44%, intensifying pressure on household food budgets. This surge followed seasonal volatility and reported disruptions in supply from major producing regions. Tomatoes have now risen nearly 90% over the past year, highlighting persistent instability in perishable food markets.
Fuel prices also contributed to the weekly inflation uptick, with petrol increasing by 1.72% and diesel by 1.45%, adding further pressure on transportation and logistics costs. The rise in petroleum prices mirrors global oil market trends, with ripple effects seen across food distribution and utility expenses.
Other food items showing price growth included garlic (1.41%), onions (1.22%), chili powder (0.72%), mutton (0.59%), and beef (0.41%). Processed and household goods such as vegetable ghee (0.22%), curd (0.19%), lawn printed fabric (0.17%), and cigarettes (0.07%) also edged upwards.
In contrast, several items experienced weekly declines. Chicken prices dropped significantly by 7.96%, offering some relief in protein costs, followed by decreases in bananas (0.78%), pulse gram (0.67%), and jaggery (gur), which fell by 0.59%. Potatoes (down 0.43%) and LPG (down 0.42%) also declined, alongside moderate reductions in eggs, cooking oil, and pulse moong.
Out of the 51 items monitored, 19 saw price increases, 12 decreased, and 20 remained unchanged—signaling a mixed inflationary environment.
On a year-over-year basis, the SPI showed a 4.07% increase, with prices of essential items fluctuating widely. In addition to the tomato price explosion, substantial annual hikes were seen in the cost of ladies’ sandals (55.62%), sugar (33.73%), gas charges for the first quarter (29.85%), and wheat flour (13.37%). Diesel and beef rose by 12.57% and 12.48% respectively, while traditional fuels like firewood saw an 11.22% uptick.
Processed food items remained volatile, with vegetable ghee registering annual gains of over 11% for both 1kg and 2.5kg packs—driven by global edible oil market dynamics and local demand pressures.
However, several categories provided relief on a yearly basis. Onion prices dropped 44.93% year-on-year, likely influenced by bumper domestic crops and timely imports. Chicken prices were down 31.08%, garlic by 28.69%, and electricity charges for the first quarter saw a 26.26% reduction. Pulses, often relied on by lower-income households, also recorded declines—pulse gram fell 24.24%, pulse mash 19.11%, and pulse masoor 4.10%. Prices of LPG and branded tea (Lipton) fell by 1.33% and 17.93%, respectively.
The SPI’s continued fluctuations underline the challenges of food and fuel price management in Pakistan’s inflation-sensitive economy. As a real-time gauge of cost-of-living changes, the SPI provides policymakers and consumers with vital insights into short-term market trends.
The government has been under increasing pressure to stabilize prices amid global commodity uncertainty, rupee depreciation, and fiscal reforms tied to international financial programs. Short-term inflation spikes, especially in food and fuel, have a disproportionate impact on lower-income households, who spend a larger share of their earnings on these essentials.
The PBS data also suggests that while headline inflation is somewhat contained on an annual basis, volatility remains a concern at the weekly level. The increase in both food and energy prices poses risks as the country enters the winter season, when demand for heating and certain vegetables traditionally rises.
Going forward, economic managers may need to implement tighter market regulation, bolster agricultural supply chains, and expand targeted subsidies or safety nets to prevent further burden on consumers. The SPI will remain a critical instrument for measuring the effectiveness of such interventions and tracking inflation shocks in real time.
