Friday , March 13 2026

SPI jumps 1.89% as fuel prices surge

Aftab Maken

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics reports weekly inflation spike driven by petrol, diesel, LPG and food prices, while yearly SPI shows 6.44% increase amid energy tariff hikes and wheat flour cost pressures.

Pakistan’s weekly inflation accelerated after the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics reported a sharp rise in the Sensitive Price Indicator for the week ended March 11, 2026, reflecting higher fuel and food prices across major urban markets.

The bureau said the SPI increased 1.89% week-on-week, mainly due to a steep jump in petroleum prices after the government revised fuel rates earlier this month. Petrol prices rose 20.60% during the week, while diesel climbed 19.54% and liquefied petroleum gas increased 12.13%, making energy the largest contributor to the weekly inflation spike.

Food items also recorded moderate increases, with onion prices rising 9.63% and wheat flour gaining 1.28%. Chicken, bananas, pulse mash, gram and fresh milk also posted small gains, showing continued pressure on household consumption costs in urban areas.

The SPI monitors 51 essential commodities collected from 50 markets in 17 cities, and is used by policymakers to track short-term inflation trends. According to the bureau, prices of 14 items increased during the week, nine declined and 28 remained unchanged, indicating that inflationary pressure remained concentrated in fuel and selected food items.

On the downside, prices of tomatoes fell 3.66% while potatoes declined 2.86%, providing limited relief to consumers. Smaller decreases were also recorded in garlic, rice IRRI-6/9, pulse masoor, mustard oil and sugar, but these declines were not enough to offset the surge in fuel costs.

On a yearly basis, the SPI showed a 6.44% increase compared with the same week last year, reflecting the cumulative impact of higher energy tariffs and food prices. Diesel prices were up nearly 30% year-on-year, while gas charges for the first quarter rose 29.85% following tariff revisions approved earlier under the government’s energy sector reforms.

Wheat flour prices increased 27.75% over the year, according to the bureau, highlighting supply pressures in the grain market. Analysts say the rise in wheat costs reflects higher procurement prices, transport expenses and currency depreciation during the past year.

Beef, powdered milk and mutton also posted notable increases, showing continued inflation in protein-based foods. Chilies powder, gur and broken basmati rice recorded moderate gains, while cooked beef prices also moved higher compared with last year.

Some commodities showed significant declines over the year, with potato prices falling more than 50% due to higher crop output. Chicken prices dropped nearly 26% and egg prices also declined, reflecting improved poultry supply after last year’s shortages.

Economists say weekly SPI readings remain important for the State Bank of Pakistan when assessing inflation risks before monetary policy decisions. The central bank has repeatedly warned that energy price adjustments and food supply shocks remain the biggest drivers of short-term inflation volatility.

According to recent policy statements, the government continues to adjust fuel and gas prices to meet fiscal targets agreed with the International Monetary Fund, a move that often leads to temporary spikes in the SPI.

Analysts expect the Sensitive Price Indicator to remain volatile in coming weeks as global oil prices, exchange-rate movements and wheat supply conditions continue to influence domestic inflation in Pakistan.

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