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The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has informed the Senate Standing Committee on Climate Change that Pakistan is likely to receive up to 300 millimeters of rain during this year’s monsoon season, with Punjab expecting between 300 to 380 millimeters. The frequency of cloudbursts is also expected to increase.
The Senate committee meeting, chaired by Senator Sherry Rehman, was held at the NDMA headquarters in Islamabad, where officials delivered a special briefing on risk preparedness and early warning mechanisms.
NDMA officials told the committee that the ongoing heatwave advisory had been issued six months in advance. The monsoon season typically runs from July through September 15, with its onset expected around June 26 or 27 this year.
According to the briefing, Rajanpur and Dera Ghazi Khan districts are forecast to receive particularly heavy rainfall and will require focused attention. Northern and eastern Punjab are also expected to be impacted by significant rainfall. Officials warned that glacier melt could cause local flooding and overflow in streams and nullahs.
Senator Naseema Ehsan inquired about rainfall forecasts and potential damage in Balochistan. In response, NDMA clarified that province-specific data is regularly shared with respective Provincial Disaster Management Authorities (PDMAs). The officials noted that most homes in Balochistan and Sindh are built with mud, making them highly vulnerable to damage.
In terms of temperature trends, southern Punjab and Sindh may witness a rise of 4 to 5 degrees Celsius, while Punjab’s temperature may increase by 2 to 3 degrees. Sindh is expected to experience 2.5 degrees higher temperatures than normal.
NDMA projected that this year’s monsoon will bring above-average rainfall. Punjab, which typically receives 344 millimeters of rain, could receive as much as 388 millimeters. Northeastern Punjab may see up to 50% more rain than usual, while southern Punjab is also expected to receive elevated rainfall levels.
Officials highlighted the presence of mountain torrents in the Koh-e-Sulaiman range. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the usual monsoon rainfall of 243 millimeters could rise to 300 millimeters. Similarly, Azad Kashmir is likely to witness increased rainfall along with a higher occurrence of cloudbursts.
While NDMA ruled out a 2022-style nationwide flood, it warned of localized flooding due to intense rainfall in specific areas. Rainfall this monsoon is expected to exceed normal levels by 1 to 5 percent.
Senator Sherry Rehman also raised a question about the implications of the Indus Waters Treaty. NDMA officials responded that a study is currently underway, noting that India is utilizing less water than its full capacity from the western rivers.
